Phosphorous shortages could soon make Organics the norm.
The prevailing message at 2009 Organic Agriculture conference was that Organics (and other approaches to food and the environment) should not be seen as ‘alternative’. In fact, in the context of historical and future food production, modern ‘mainstream’ agriculture can be seen as a temporary diversion from the ancient imperative of nutrient cycling. The current use of Phosphorus fertilizers clearly displays this point.
In the classic Farmers of Forty Centuries: Organic Farming in China, Korea, and Japan, F.H. King explains how the practice of returning animal and human waste to the soil has allowed Asian agriculture to remain productive for thousands of years. This is in contrast to most other civilizations, which seem to have risen and fallen (together with the productivity of their soils) over much shorter time spans. This is a simplification of course, but one cannot help but compare the past with our current reality: a civilization which spans the globe and, through the use finite mineral reserves, has abandoned the simple principle of nutrient cycling.
In the wake of ‘Peak Oil’, the term ‘Peak Phosphorus’ is starting to get attention in the media. The fact is we can live without oil, but this is not the case with Phosphorus. Plants, animals, humans, and microbes cannot exist without it. Reserves of phosphate rock (from which fertilizer is made) have been estimated at anywhere between 30-300 years. Regardless of the exact numbers, our behaviors with respect to this nutrient will have to change within generations. With reserves existing in only a handful of regions, we are already seeing political consequences of future shortages. China and Brazil have shown protectionist tendencies with respect to mines that supply the fertilizer industry.
In light of ‘Peak Phosphorus’, Organic agriculture, or any form of food production based on rebuilding soil and cycling nutrients, is no longer an alternative but an imperative. This does not entail simply reverting to ancient techniques, but implementing a combination of modern technology and ancient principles. For example, urine diverting toilets, industrial scale composting, and chemical/biological phosphate recovery techniques could be combined with traditional farming practices such as mulching, green manure, and crop rotation. To the consumer, such ‘Organic’ methods should be seen as being based on robust science, whereas conventional modern agriculture lies on shaky foundations. This would require an inversion of today’s popular opinion that Organic is a nice alternative but is not suitable to feed the world.
In his keynote address at the 2009 Organics Conference, Wayne Roberts argued that Organics is at a ‘Tipping Point’ where it has become mainstream (with 2% market share) and growth is starting to level off. The situation with Phosphorous should be sufficient for public policy to push Organic over the edge and truly make it the status quo.